Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.0 in
- RP forecast
- 11.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.0 in | 11.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.5 in | 14.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.1 mph | 94.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.3 in | 16.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.1 in | 11.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 47.2% | 49.9% | 49.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 20.8% | 26.9% | 27.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.9% | 25.0% | 26.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 20.0% | 33.7% | 35.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.0% | 44.8% | 42.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.3% | 16.0% | 18.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.4% | 22.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.8% | 52.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.0% | 24.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.1% | 23.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.7% | 3.0% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.1% | 22.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.9% | 19.1% | — |