Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.1 in
- RP forecast
- 15.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.1 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.4 in | 5.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.7 mph | 96.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.4 in | 6.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.6 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 90 | 90 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.4% | 48.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.9% | 27.2% | 27.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.8% | 23.2% | 24.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 48.5% | 50.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.0% | 42.4% | 40.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.4% | 18.4% | 20.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.3% | 25.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.0% | 69.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.8% | 32.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.9% | 4.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.9% | 22.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.4% | 20.6% | — |