Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 10.6 in
- RP forecast
- 10.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.76 | 1.17 | 25.1% | 6.6% | 41.5% |
| RP | 3.30 | 1.13 | 27.2% | 6.9% | 43.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.6 in | 10.5 in | 10.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.5 in | 14.5 in | 14.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.4 mph | 95.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.9 in | 17.0 in | 16.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.5 in | 3.6 in | 3.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Zone rate | 51.0% | 51.1% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.2% | 30.8% | 31.4% | 30.8% |
| Whiff rate | 25.2% | 26.3% | 28.0% | 26.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.3% | 41.5% | 43.5% | 41.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.8% | 40.2% | 37.8% | 40.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.6% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 25.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.8% | 27.3% | 26.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.0% | 65.0% | 65.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.5% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.7% | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.0% | 13.2% | 14.0% |