Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.5 in
- RP forecast
- 6.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.30 | 1.28 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 43.2% |
| RP | 3.84 | 1.24 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 45.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.5 in | 6.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.8 in | 14.8 in | 14.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.7 mph | 93.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | 17.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.1 in | 16.2 in | 16.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Zone rate | 48.2% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 48.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.1% | 30.0% | 30.6% | 30.0% |
| Whiff rate | 21.3% | 23.0% | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.3% | 43.2% | 45.2% | 43.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.9% | 39.2% | 36.8% | 39.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.7% | 19.9% | 21.9% | 19.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.1% | 30.6% | 30.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.1% | 54.1% | 54.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.1% | 25.6% | 25.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.2% | 15.3% | 16.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.2% | 15.4% | 16.2% |