Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.9 in
- RP forecast
- 14.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.9 in | 14.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.0 in | 8.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.8 in | 10.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.8 in | 6.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 91 | 91 | — |
| Zone rate | 52.7% | 50.6% | 50.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.2% | 26.7% | 27.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.8% | 21.0% | 22.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.8% | 42.2% | 44.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.8% | 42.2% | 39.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 19.8% | 20.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.2% | 32.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.8% | 64.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.4% | 41.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.7% | 1.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.2% | 29.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.4% | 20.6% | — |