Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.8 in
- RP forecast
- 16.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.8 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.2 in | 5.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.4 in | 5.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 93 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 90 | 90 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.6% | 48.6% | 48.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.0% | 28.7% | 29.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.9% | 24.0% | 25.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.1% | 48.5% | 50.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.5% | 42.2% | 39.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.7 pp | 0.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.0% | 19.4% | 21.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.8% | 19.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 75.1% | 75.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.5% | 25.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.6% | 4.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.6% | 35.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.4% | 15.6% | — |