Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.6 in
- RP forecast
- 4.5 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.6 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.3 in | 14.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.1 in | 13.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 41.0% | 45.7% | 45.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.5% | 28.6% | 29.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.2% | 24.2% | 25.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.4% | 43.1% | 45.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 27.8% | 38.1% | 35.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.0% | 18.0% | 20.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.6% | 36.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.5% | 48.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.3% | 39.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.8% | 15.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.7% | 23.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 16.6% | — |