Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.35 | 1.32 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 39.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.89 | 1.28 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 41.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.6 in | 7.5 in | 7.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | 95.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.0 in | 12.1 in | 12.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.2 in | 17.3 in | 17.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 47.3% | 48.2% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.2% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 26.1% | 25.1% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.9% | 39.3% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.5% | 40.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.0% | 22.0% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.5% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 82.7% | 82.7% | 82.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.2% | 24.8% | 24.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 36.9% | 38.1% | 38.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.5% | 21.7% | 21.7% |