Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.8 in
- RP forecast
- 7.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.8 in | 7.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.4 in | 14.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.2 mph | 97.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.4 in | 14.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 120 | 108 | 110 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 111 | 112 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.9% | 49.1% | 48.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.9% | 28.0% | 28.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 21.8% | 25.7% | 27.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 41.8% | 43.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.8% | 37.8% | 35.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.9% | 23.5% | 25.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.9% | 33.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.3% | 62.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.3% | 48.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.3% | 2.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.5% | 24.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.8% | 13.0% | — |