Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 12.6 in
- RP forecast
- 12.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.62 | 1.17 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 45.1% |
| RP | 3.16 | 1.13 | 29.4% | 7.6% | 47.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.6 in | 12.5 in | 12.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.8 in | 12.9 in | 12.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.9 mph | 97.5 mph | 96.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.4 in | 11.5 in | 11.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.4 in | 16.5 in | 16.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 48.0% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.3% | 30.6% | 31.2% | 30.6% |
| Whiff rate | 28.2% | 28.2% | 30.0% | 28.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.1% | 45.1% | 47.1% | 45.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.6% | 40.0% | 37.6% | 40.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.1% | 27.3% | 29.4% | 27.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.6% | 27.2% | 26.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.8% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.0% | 37.6% | 37.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.2% | 22.3% | 23.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.3% | 12.5% | 13.3% |