Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.0 in
- RP forecast
- 15.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.0 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 4.7 in | 4.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.5 in | 6.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.6% | 47.0% | 46.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.7% | 28.5% | 29.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.2% | 20.3% | 22.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.2% | 49.0% | 51.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.9% | 42.1% | 39.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.1 pp | 1.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 11.1% | 15.5% | 17.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.3% | 30.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.6% | 34.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.4% | 12.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.6% | 18.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.3% | 16.5% | — |