Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.6 in
- RP forecast
- 16.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.68 | 1.39 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 44.9% |
| RP | 4.22 | 1.35 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 46.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.6 in | 16.5 in | 16.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.9 in | 6.9 in | 6.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.8 mph | 93.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.3 in | 3.4 in | 3.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.9 in | 16.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 49.0% | 48.9% | 48.7% | 48.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.6% | 27.1% | 27.7% | 27.1% |
| Whiff rate | 18.6% | 20.4% | 22.1% | 20.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.5% | 44.9% | 46.9% | 44.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.1% | 39.9% | 37.5% | 39.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.2% | 17.9% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.2% | 29.7% | 29.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.5% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.7% | 28.3% | 27.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 19.2% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.1% | 25.3% | 24.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.0% | 19.2% | 20.0% |