Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.2 in
- RP forecast
- 6.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.2 in | 6.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.1 in | 17.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.9 mph | 94.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.3 in | 5.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.4 in | 18.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 91 | 91 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.4% | 48.9% | 48.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.2% | 27.6% | 28.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.6% | 24.6% | 26.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.8% | 39.2% | 41.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.6% | 37.8% | 35.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.7% | 20.8% | 22.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.5% | 30.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.9% | 53.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.7% | 31.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.7% | 14.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.2% | 24.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.7% | 19.9% | — |