Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.3 in
- RP forecast
- 4.3 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.3 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.0 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.4 mph | 98.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.4 in | 5.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 47.9% | 47.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.7% | 28.5% | 29.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.9% | 25.8% | 27.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.7% | 43.8% | 45.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.3% | 40.5% | 38.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.5% | 23.3% | 25.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.1% | 35.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.5% | 59.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.0% | 35.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.3% | 3.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.0% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.6% | 31.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 21.6% | — |