Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.48 | 1.37 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 48.4% |
| RP · chosen | 4.02 | 1.33 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 50.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.3 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.5 in | 10.5 in | 10.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.1 mph | 94.7 mph | 94.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.6 in | 18.7 in | 18.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.4 in | 3.5 in | 3.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 52.0% | 50.5% | 50.3% | 50.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.0% | 27.6% | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| Whiff rate | 19.7% | 20.6% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.5% | 48.4% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.0% | 41.3% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.6% | 19.2% | 21.3% | 21.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.9% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.3% | 60.3% | 60.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.3% | 33.9% | 33.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.9% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.6% | 19.8% | 19.8% |