Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 4.1 in
- RP forecast
- 4.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.61 | 1.17 | 29.4% | 8.4% | 40.2% |
| RP | 3.15 | 1.13 | 31.5% | 8.7% | 42.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.1 in | 4.0 in | 4.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.6 in | 18.7 in | 18.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.5 mph | 98.1 mph | 97.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.6 in | 3.7 in | 3.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 111 | 106 | 108 | 106 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 109 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 43.6% | 47.0% | 46.8% | 47.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.4% | 31.7% | 32.3% | 31.7% |
| Whiff rate | 32.0% | 31.1% | 32.8% | 31.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.0% | 40.2% | 42.2% | 40.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.2% | 39.6% | 37.2% | 39.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 29.4% | 29.4% | 31.5% | 29.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.1% | 38.7% | 38.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.4% | 55.4% | 55.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.8% | 51.4% | 50.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.6% | 35.8% | 34.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% |