Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.6 in
- RP forecast
- 15.5 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.6 in | 15.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.4 in | 7.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.7 mph | 96.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.3 in | 16.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.3% | 46.9% | 46.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.2% | 27.2% | 27.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 29.3% | 25.9% | 27.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.0% | 47.0% | 49.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.6% | 40.5% | 38.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.8% | 18.9% | 21.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.4% | 28.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.3% | 62.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.1% | 40.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.8% | 7.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.7% | 19.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.0% | 15.3% | — |