Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP forecast
- 16.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.4 in | 8.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.4 in | 18.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 95 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.8% | 49.8% | 49.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 21.4% | 26.8% | 27.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.5% | 18.3% | 20.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.7% | 37.4% | 39.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.5% | 44.3% | 41.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 13.3% | 16.0% | 18.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.7% | 38.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 23.0% | 23.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.9% | 5.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.2% | 21.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.2% | 21.5% | — |