Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.3 in
- RP forecast
- 8.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.3 in | 8.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.9 in | 13.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.5 mph | 94.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.5 in | 6.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.4 in | 7.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 101 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.5% | 47.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.7% | 28.5% | 29.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 36.2% | 29.1% | 30.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 1.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.4% | 42.6% | 44.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.0% | 38.2% | 35.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 37.3% | 27.0% | 29.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.7% | 31.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.5% | 63.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.0% | 43.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.2% | 4.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.4% | 27.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.9% | 18.1% | — |