Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.1 in
- RP forecast
- 16.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.2 in | 8.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.6 mph | 98.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.0 in | 3.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.0 in | 15.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 109 | 102 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 91 | 91 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.3% | 47.8% | 47.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.4% | 29.7% | 30.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 33.3% | 28.3% | 30.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.4% | 48.7% | 50.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 41.2% | 38.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.6% | 21.6% | 23.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 48.0% | 48.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.1% | 38.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.8% | 13.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 44.1% | 45.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.6% | 14.8% | — |