Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.5 in
- RP forecast
- 7.4 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.5 in | 7.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.6 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.9 mph | 98.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.5 in | 6.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.5 in | 12.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 55.3% | 51.1% | 50.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.2% | 27.9% | 28.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.2% | 22.2% | 23.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 44.9% | 46.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.4% | 41.3% | 38.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.9 pp | 0.9 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.3% | 21.0% | 23.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.3% | 29.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.4% | 58.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 45.2% | 45.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.0% | 12.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.9% | 21.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.9% | 13.1% | — |