Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 13.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.91 | 1.26 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 48.2% |
| RP · chosen | 3.45 | 1.22 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 50.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.0 in | 13.9 in | 13.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.7 in | 11.7 in | 11.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.1 mph | 97.7 mph | 97.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.9 in | 18.1 in | 18.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.7 in | 17.9 in | 17.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | 105 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 48.9% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.8% | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| Whiff rate | 30.1% | 26.4% | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.0% | 48.2% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.0% | 37.8% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.9% | 24.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.5% | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.7% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 37.7% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.1% | 34.3% | 34.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 25.6% | 24.8% | 24.8% |