Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.1 in
- RP forecast
- 8.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.1 in | 8.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.0 in | 18.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.1 in | 6.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.4 in | 13.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.1% | 48.0% | 47.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.6% | 30.1% | 30.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.7% | 24.1% | 25.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.6% | 38.6% | 40.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.2% | 40.4% | 38.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 21.1% | 21.6% | 23.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.9% | 31.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.9% | 58.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 52.4% | 52.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.4% | 7.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.2% | 28.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.5% | 8.8% | — |