Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.68 | 1.40 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 43.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.23 | 1.36 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 45.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.3 in | 7.2 in | 7.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.7 in | 15.8 in | 15.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | 95.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 1.3 in | 1.5 in | 1.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.1 in | 14.2 in | 14.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 43.6% | 47.3% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.9% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 21.2% | 21.6% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.5% | 43.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.5% | 43.9% | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.3% | 18.4% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.3% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 46.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.8% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.5% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.1% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% |