Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.1 in
- RP forecast
- 4.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.1 in | 4.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.1 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.3 mph | 95.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.7 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.6 in | 10.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 89 | 89 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.7% | 47.4% | 47.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.1% | 28.7% | 29.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.0% | 26.2% | 28.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 45.0% | 47.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.9% | 39.7% | 37.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.7% | 23.7% | 25.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.9% | 32.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.3% | 54.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.2% | 48.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.5% | 13.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.5% | 28.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.2% | 14.4% | — |