Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.7 in
- RP forecast
- 15.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.7 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.3 in | 8.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.5 mph | 93.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 14.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.6 in | 11.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 107 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.9% | 48.7% | 48.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.6% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 21.6% | 23.1% | 24.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.2% | 45.6% | 47.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.5% | 38.7% | 36.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.9% | 20.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.7% | 22.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.3% | 69.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.7% | 37.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.1% | 7.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.4% | 25.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.2% | 18.4% | — |