Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.5 in
- RP forecast
- 6.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.5 in | 18.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.6 in | 9.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 17.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 53.1% | 50.3% | 50.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 19.6% | 26.1% | 26.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.5% | 23.9% | 25.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 17.6% | 32.0% | 34.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.3% | 39.1% | 36.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.8% | 21.4% | 23.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.2% | 23.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.3% | 63.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 56.8% | 57.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.9% | 13.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.9% | 20.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.5% | 13.8% | — |