Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 4.7 in
- RP forecast
- 4.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.29 | 1.33 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 41.2% |
| RP | 3.83 | 1.29 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 43.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.7 in | 4.6 in | 4.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.5 in | 19.5 in | 19.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.5 mph | 95.1 mph | 94.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.1 in | 13.2 in | 13.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.7 in | 6.9 in | 6.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | 96 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | 89 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 43.9% | 46.7% | 46.4% | 46.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.0% | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.2% |
| Whiff rate | 30.2% | 28.6% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.9% | 41.2% | 43.2% | 41.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.1% | 41.2% | 38.8% | 41.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.2% | 23.0% | 25.1% | 23.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.8% | 27.3% | 26.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.6% | 47.6% | 47.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 41.6% | 42.2% | 41.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 27.1% | 26.2% | 27.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.1% | 27.4% | 26.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 21.8% | 22.6% |