Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.32 | 1.32 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 43.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.86 | 1.28 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 45.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.2 in | 5.2 in | 5.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.0 in | 17.0 in | 17.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.7 mph | 97.2 mph | 97.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.8 in | 8.9 in | 8.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.5 in | 18.7 in | 18.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 51.2% | 49.6% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.1% | 28.5% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Whiff rate | 23.0% | 23.8% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.5% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.7% | 39.8% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.5% | 21.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 16.4% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 71.4% | 71.4% | 71.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.3% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.0% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% |