Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.7 in
- RP forecast
- 5.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.7 in | 5.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.2 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.7 in | 12.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.7 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 109 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 47.7% | 48.2% | 47.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.1% | 29.5% | 30.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.6% | 28.0% | 29.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 44.0% | 46.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.8% | 39.7% | 37.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.6 pp | 1.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 18.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 9.1% | 19.6% | 21.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.1% | 40.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.7% | 44.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.0% | 32.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.5% | 14.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.7% | 30.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.1% | 15.3% | — |