Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.5 in
- RP forecast
- 5.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.5 in | 5.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.9 in | 14.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.0 mph | 93.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.6 in | 10.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.6 in | 16.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.1% | 48.7% | 48.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.5% | 28.1% | 28.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.3% | 21.6% | 23.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.0% | 41.1% | 43.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.8% | 41.8% | 39.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 12.3% | 17.0% | 19.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.0% | 25.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.0% | 53.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.0% | 34.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.2% | 22.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.3% | 24.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.6% | 19.8% | — |