Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.5 in
- RP forecast
- 15.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.5 in | 15.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.3 in | 2.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.0 mph | 94.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.6 in | 8.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.5% | 47.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 26.2% | 26.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.7% | 23.4% | 25.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.2% | 49.8% | 51.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.5% | 44.9% | 42.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.1% | 19.3% | 21.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 8.4% | 8.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 82.8% | 82.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 18.7% | 19.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.4% | 7.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 46.9% | 48.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.8% | 17.0% | — |