Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.5 in
- RP forecast
- 8.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.5 in | 8.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.5 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.4 in | 3.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.3% | 48.8% | 48.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.9% | 28.0% | 28.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.9% | 22.3% | 24.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.2% | 41.7% | 43.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.2% | 40.1% | 37.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 13.5% | 18.0% | 20.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.8% | 26.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.7% | 48.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.9% | 41.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.9% | 26.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.6% | 27.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 20.7% | — |