Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.6 in
- RP forecast
- 10.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.6 in | 10.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.0 in | 14.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.0 mph | 94.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.7 in | 7.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.4 in | 10.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.3% | 47.7% | 47.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.5% | 27.7% | 28.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.0% | 21.8% | 23.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.3% | 43.5% | 45.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.8% | 39.4% | 37.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.1% | 18.7% | 20.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.0% | 26.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.1% | 60.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.4% | 26.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.8% | 12.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.0% | 24.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.3% | 14.5% | — |