Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.5 in
- RP forecast
- 11.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.5 in | 11.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.6 in | 12.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.1 mph | 98.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.7 in | 6.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 105 | 106 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.3% | 49.0% | 48.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 28.1% | 28.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.0% | 27.4% | 29.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.6% | 45.5% | 47.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 52.1% | 43.3% | 40.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.9% | 24.5% | 26.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.6% | 28.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.6% | 61.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.0% | 37.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.3% | 10.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.6% | 20.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.4% | 13.6% | — |