Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.1 in
- RP forecast
- 7.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.1 in | 7.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.5 in | 15.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 93.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.6 in | 10.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 44.4% | 47.4% | 47.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.1% | 27.1% | 27.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.0% | 26.3% | 28.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.6% | 38.5% | 40.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.9% | 40.9% | 38.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.7% | 10.7% | 11.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.5% | 20.9% | 23.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.1% | 36.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.4% | 59.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.9% | 41.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.0% | 3.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.5% | 33.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.0% | 15.2% | — |