Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.2 in
- RP forecast
- 10.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.2 in | 10.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.7 in | 12.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.7 in | 2.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 100 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 43.0% | 46.5% | 46.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 23.3% | 27.1% | 27.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 32.6% | 27.3% | 29.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.9% | 39.8% | 41.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.2% | 37.7% | 35.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 25.3% | 22.4% | 24.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.1% | 41.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.8% | 53.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.8% | 36.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.8% | 2.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 25.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.4% | 18.6% | — |