Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.7 in
- RP forecast
- 6.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.43 | 1.30 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 40.3% |
| RP | 3.97 | 1.26 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 42.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.7 in | 6.6 in | 6.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.4 in | 17.4 in | 17.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.6 mph | 93.2 mph | 92.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.9 in | 9.0 in | 8.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.0 in | 13.1 in | 13.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 50.4% | 49.2% | 49.0% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.8% | 29.4% | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| Whiff rate | 17.8% | 21.7% | 23.5% | 21.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.3% | 40.3% | 42.4% | 40.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.1% | 38.9% | 36.5% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 20.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.1% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.3% | 64.3% | 64.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.7% | 26.3% | 25.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.7% | 31.9% | 30.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.6% | 14.9% | 15.6% |