Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.84 | 1.28 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 52.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.38 | 1.24 | 26.9% | 8.9% | 54.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.7 in | 2.7 in | 2.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.3 mph | 96.9 mph | 96.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.5 in | 12.6 in | 12.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.5 in | 8.6 in | 8.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 113 | 114 | 114 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 52.7% | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.7% | 27.2% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Whiff rate | 26.9% | 24.9% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.8% | 52.8% | 54.9% | 54.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 29.8% | 40.7% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 31.3% | 24.8% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.5% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.5% | 61.5% | 61.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.5% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.0% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.0% | 15.2% | 15.2% |