Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.5 in
- RP forecast
- 4.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.5 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.6 mph | 94.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.0 in | 6.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.6 in | 10.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 53.7% | 50.5% | 50.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.0% | 28.4% | 29.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 21.3% | 22.6% | 24.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.9% | 40.3% | 42.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.8% | 41.2% | 38.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 11.7% | 17.3% | 19.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 43.0% | 43.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.3% | 45.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.9% | 35.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.5% | 10.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.1% | 32.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.7% | 11.9% | — |