Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.9 in
- RP forecast
- 8.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.32 | 1.28 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 40.5% |
| RP | 3.86 | 1.24 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 42.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.9 in | 8.8 in | 8.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.4 in | 16.4 in | 16.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.2 mph | 95.8 mph | 95.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.5 in | 4.6 in | 4.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.2 in | 15.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 48.7% | 49.3% | 49.1% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.1% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 22.6% | 24.3% | 26.0% | 24.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.3% | 40.5% | 42.5% | 40.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.5% | 40.7% | 38.3% | 40.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.3% | 22.1% | 24.1% | 22.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 33.6% | 34.2% | 33.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.6% | 53.6% | 53.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.1% | 33.6% | 33.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.3% | 12.4% | 13.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 23.0% | 21.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.6% | 12.8% | 13.6% |