Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.31 | 1.34 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 48.2% |
| RP · chosen | 3.85 | 1.31 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 50.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.3 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.6 in | 6.6 in | 6.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.5 mph | 92.1 mph | 92.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 20.4 in | 20.6 in | 20.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 20.4 in | 20.6 in | 20.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 116 | 116 | 116 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 47.9% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.7% | 29.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Whiff rate | 22.1% | 22.5% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.0% | 48.2% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.0% | 38.2% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.9% | 20.2% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 55.1% | 55.7% | 55.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 33.8% | 33.8% | 33.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 23.5% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.9% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.6% | 20.8% | 20.8% |