Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.1 in
- RP forecast
- 7.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.1 in | 7.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.8 mph | 94.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.0 in | 5.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.5 in | 14.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 99 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 52.5% | 50.0% | 49.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.9% | 29.8% | 30.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.4% | 24.9% | 26.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.8% | 42.9% | 44.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.0% | 39.3% | 36.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 21.9% | 22.0% | 24.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.7% | 38.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.9% | 45.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.0% | 37.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.7% | 15.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.0% | 24.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 16.6% | — |