Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.3 in
- RP forecast
- 8.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.70 | 1.20 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 46.9% |
| RP | 3.24 | 1.16 | 28.2% | 7.8% | 48.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.3 in | 8.2 in | 8.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.2 in | 16.2 in | 16.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.5 mph | 95.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.7 in | 11.8 in | 11.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.3 in | 9.4 in | 9.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 100 | 102 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 48.0% | 48.5% | 48.2% | 48.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.9% | 30.9% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| Whiff rate | 27.9% | 27.8% | 29.6% | 27.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.6% | 46.9% | 48.9% | 46.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.5% | 39.0% | 36.6% | 39.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.7% | 26.1% | 28.2% | 26.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.9% | 22.5% | 21.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.9% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.0% | 26.6% | 26.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.0% | 25.1% | 26.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.0% | 26.2% | 25.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.9% | 14.1% | 14.9% |