Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.63 | 1.35 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 36.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.17 | 1.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 38.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.0 in | 8.9 in | 8.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.8 in | 16.8 in | 16.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.4 mph | 91.9 mph | 91.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.5 in | 10.6 in | 10.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 41.8% | 46.2% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.0% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 28.8% | 25.6% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.6% | 36.5% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.5% | 41.1% | 38.6% | 38.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.7% | 21.1% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 17.7% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.4% | 56.4% | 56.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.1% | 39.7% | 39.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.5% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% |