Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.5 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.36 | 1.35 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 41.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.90 | 1.31 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 43.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.5 in | 14.4 in | 14.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.4 in | 12.4 in | 12.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.6 mph | 96.2 mph | 96.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.8 in | 2.9 in | 2.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 17.9 in | 17.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.1% | 29.1% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| Whiff rate | 29.8% | 27.7% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.3% | 41.5% | 43.5% | 43.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.9% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.1% | 23.4% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 51.5% | 52.1% | 52.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.7% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 47.6% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% |