Single-A Pitch Types
Which Single-A pitches, and which stats on them, separate future big leaguers. The fastball does most of the predicting, and one standout pitch buys far more in A-ball than higher up.
586 pitchers · 85 reached MLBFollow-up to Single-A to the Majors · October 2026
Stuff+ by pitch
Score = how often the pitch's Stuff+ ranks a pitcher who reached MLB above one who hadn't. 50 is a coin flip.
- Primary fastball72
- Whole arsenal69
- Primary breaking ball61
- Best-graded secondary60
- Changeup48
What matters on each pitch
| Pitch | Predicts reaching MLB, beyond velo and age |
|---|---|
| Four-seam | Pitching+, Location+, Stuff+, zone %, CSW% |
| Sinker | Ground-ball %, Location+, arm-side run |
| Slider | Chases induced |
| Curveball | Separation from the fastball (slower, more drop), strikesTentative |
| Changeup | Nothing detected |
Sinker-first arms reach less
- Four-seam first18%
- Sinker first8%
Share who reached MLB. The gap holds after velo, age, role, arm angle and birth country, and in each season.
One plus pitch goes further in A-ball
How much a Stuff+ point on a pitcher's best pitch is worth in K-BB%, relative to a point on the rest of his arsenal. At 50%, the two are worth the same.
- Single-A51%
- Triple-A21%
- MLB26%
In Single-A, the best pitch is worth as much as the rest of the arsenal. In Triple-A and MLB, the rest is worth three to four times as much. The gap holds after accounting for arsenal size and is widest when the standout pitch is a fastball.