Deception Score measures how much harder a pitcher is to hit than expected based on raw pitch characteristics alone. It uses bat tracking residuals — the gap between how batters should react and how they actually react — to isolate deception independent of Stuff+, DLoc+, and Pitching+.
We train models to predict expected bat speed and swing length for each pitch based on its physics and the batter's baseline. The difference between expected and actual swing mechanics reveals deception: if batters consistently swing slower and shorter against a pitcher, that pitcher is doing something deceptive beyond what pitch quality explains.
2
Features
2-Stage
Pipeline
−0.16
FIP Correlation
2024+
Data Available
The core signal — how much batters underperform their expected swing mechanics against this pitcher.
100 = league average deception.
115+ = elite deception — batters consistently react worse than expected.
85 or below = low deception — pitches are more readable despite their physical characteristics.
Available 2024+ only (requires bat tracking data from Statcast).
